Win rate without price
A 60% win rate at 1.91 and a 60% win rate at 1.40 look identical on a scoreboard - one is a real edge, the other a loss compounding in slow motion. Win rate alone says nothing about price or sample size.
The edge between model and market.
Pro Edge™ runs raw match data through calibrated probability models, then surfaces only the selections where our output diverges from the market's implied price in your favour. No hunches, no narrative bias - just a measurable statistical edge, logged and tracked in the open.
Daily selection · Market consensus
Serie A · AC Milan v Bologna
Over 2.5 goals
Implied probability52.3%
Empirical frequency50.9%
MatchdayToday, 28 OctoberKick-off17:30
Fair odds 1.91Average odds 1.81
Net ROI
+24%
Net profit
+12.74u
Avg CLV
+5.1%
Settled picks
53
Win rate
67.9%
// Live performance over the last 90 days, rebuilt daily from our results tracker. All figures on flat 1-unit stakes, logged before kick-off; win rate counts full wins and losses only.
Win rate records outcomes. The closing line measures judgement.
A win-rate headline can be true and still meaningless. Closing-line value (CLV) - the gap between the price we took and the market's final price before kick-off - strips out luck, sample size, and narrative bias, and tells you whether a selection genuinely beat the market. It is the only result that compounds.
The close as benchmark
The closing line is the market's final, most efficient price - every scrap of public information is priced into it by kick-off. Beating it consistently is the closest thing betting has to a controlled test of skill.
No survivorship bias
Every Pro Edge™ selection is logged before kick-off and graded against the close, win or lose, with nothing quietly removed. A harder bar to clear than a win-rate headline, and the only one that still means something.
Rules set in advance. Results recorded in full.
A fair price with every selection
Every selection carries its modelled fair probability, the bookmaker’s overround-adjusted price, and the resulting edge in percentage-point terms — so you see the why, not just the what.
Flat, fixed staking
Every published selection is staked flat at 1 unit, never scaled up to chase losses or down to manufacture a streak. Kelly-style sizing is available to members, entirely at their own discretion and risk.
Graded against the closing line
Every selection is graded against the closing line, the sharpest price the market sets, so our closing-line value (CLV) is auditable, not asserted.
The rationale, in writing
Concise notes accompany every call: the dominant feature driving the price, the residual uncertainty no model can remove, and the historical context behind the number.
Released well before kick-off
Selections land via Telegram, geo-aware and timestamped well ahead of kick-off, before the line can move against you and the price you modelled disappears.
Selective by construction
Silent on days our models find no statistically significant edge. A validated signal or nothing at all, never filler to manufacture engagement.
The full record, losses included.
Every selection is logged before kick-off and settled against the closing line, removing any scope for hindsight bias. Results are recorded in full: variance is real, and we model it explicitly rather than smooth it away.
No qualifying edge, no selection - quiet spells are deliberate.
Past performance is never a guarantee of future results - no quantitative model can promise that. What we do guarantee is an honest, auditable track record, full transparency.
// Latest settled selections
SelectionP/L (unit)
New York Knicks v Detroit Pistons
27 Oct · NBA · Handicap Home −1.5
+0.64u
Won · 111–97
PSG v Lyon BTTS
26 Oct · Ligue 1 ·
−1.00u
Lost · 2–0
Barcelona v Real Madrid
25 Oct · La Liga · Total Goals Asian Handicap 3.75+
−1.00u
Lost · 1–2
See the model in action - for free.
Follow our public Telegram channel for sample selections, closing-line outcomes, and model notes, published openly with no subscription required.
One subscription. Every selection.
Everything the model produces - priced selections across European football, European basketball and major US sports, model notes, CLV grading, and the raw probability feed - one membership, no tiers, no upsells: every member sees exactly what the model sees.
Volume follows the market, not a quota: some weeks bring several selections, others none.
Prime
£39/ month
Begin your membership
14 days complimentary · Cancel anytime
Coverage
- Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League
- EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga
- MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAA, WNBA
The model
- Stated edge in percentage points on every selection, staked flat at 1 unit, never scaled to chase losses
- Model notes & closing-line value on every selection
- Raw probability feed for every fixture
Access
- Delivered via Telegram, timestamped and geo-aware, ahead of kick-off - before the line moves against you
- Every selection released to every member at the same moment
- Direct analyst contact for any selection